On this edition of our “IF THE OSCARS WERE TOMORROW” series we’re diving into the Adapted Screenplay category, which has us scrambling for movies to fill-in the final spots.
Ground rules to keep in mind. For the best possible accuracy, we’ll be considering not just every film that’s opened theatrically to date, but also every film SCREENED thus far that has both secured distribution and is already dated for release. These screenings may include any of the big festivals from the first half of the year or earlier. Films exclusively screened privately for the industry or press will not count. *
Adapted Screenplay
1 – The Life of Chuck (Neon)
2 – Nouvelle Vague (Netflix)
3 – Train Dreams (Netflix)
4 – Highest 2 Lowest (Apple/A24)
5 – The Ballad of Wallis Island (Focus Features)
History shows that, because it managed to win the coveted People’s Choice Award at TIFF last year, “The Life of Chuck” stands the best chance of garnering a screenplay nod if the Oscar nominations were announced tomorrow. By and large, the winners of the award have gone on to at least be nominated for their screenplay. There is an argument to be made that the film would have performed much better with the Academy had it been released promptly, rather than Neon’s inexplicable decision to wait till summer. It helps that the work of Stephen King (a friend of filmmaker Mike Flanagan’s) has routinely been invited to the Oscars – including classic films like “The Shawshank Redemption,” “Stand by Me,” and “Misery.” Based on his name alone, it would be unwise to ever completely dismiss this nomination. In fact, had the film partnered with a different company, it’s difficult not to believe its Oscar futures would have been brighter. Regardless, if Neon throws even a little bit of effort behind this nomination, it could certainly land among the final five.
The next best bet would be Richard Linklater’s “Nouvelle Vague, ” although it’s difficult to believe there won’t be some debate as to which category this screenplay truly belongs to. Either way, it’s the kind of project voters could flock toward due to its subject matter, since writers have previously demonstrated to enjoy movies about moviemaking. Although he doesn’t share in the writing credit, expect the film to also benefit from its association with director Richard Linklater, who was picked up three nominations for screenwriting over his career. If the film is allowed to stay in adapted screenplay, where competition is limited, expect Netflix to heavily campaign it for a nomination.
The other film Netflix will try to land among the nominees is “Train Dreams,” from Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar. The pair were among the writing nominees for this same category last year with “Sing Sing.” Although the film was a favorite at Sundance, garnering consecutive nominations in the same category could prove challenging, and Netflix may have to choose which title will get the lion’s share of their efforts in this race – this film or “Nouvelle Vague.”
The final two spots are wide open, and any titles that could collect the nomination now would very likely lose it by the end of the year. Unfortunately, the majority of contenders in this category are just simply not what the writing branch tends to recognize – or were released with little success at the box-office. Spike Lee’s “Highest 2 Lowest” is the kind of sprawling, urban crime thriller that critics have praised the filmmaker for in the past. However, these titles usually could not sustain any momentum as the year wore on. Lee’s “Inside Man” from 2006, also starring Denzel Washington, serves as a classic example. Then again, perhaps the fact that the filmmaker is mining the work of cinematic icon Akira Kurosawa will make all the difference. The final slot could possibly go to Focus Features’ charming, folk romance “The Ballad of Wallis Island.” At the very least, this particular title (based on the BAFTA nominated short) could rely on the support of the substantial contingent of Oscar voters from the UK and won’t have to battle the stigma surrounding genre or lackluster box-office.