We’re winding down our “IF THE OSCARS WERE TOMORROW” series, and forecasting who’s in the lead for Director so far this year.
Ground rules to keep in mind. For the best possible accuracy, we’ll be considering not just every film that’s opened theatrically to date, but also every film SCREENED thus far that has both secured distribution and is already dated for release. These screenings may include any of the big festivals from the first half of the year or earlier. Films exclusively screened privately for the industry or press will not count. *
Director
1 – Ryan Coogler (Sinners)
2 – Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value)
3 – Jafar Panahi (It Was Just An Accident)
4 – Richard Linklater (Nouvelle Vague)
5 – Kleber Mendonça Filho (The Secret Agent)
Three first-time nominees should be sitting comfortably for Best Director recognition. Ryan Coogler and Joachim Trier have both either been nominated for an Oscar in the past or have notably shepherded films into Oscar attention. They’re also both writer-directors, which is where this category has been leaning as of late. Coogler’s inclusion also helps the Academy present a more diverse lineup in the category. The same goes for Jafar Panahi who, although has never helmed a film nominated for any type of Oscar, should easily ride the Palme D’Or streak into a mention here.
It’s rare to see this category filled with only first-timers – last year’s lineup was the exception. But what are the odds of a consecutive set of directing nominees featuring only Oscar new-comers? We wouldn’t count on it. The beneficiary of a veteran spot would most likely be Richard Linklater for his love-letter to the French New Wave – a project that could resonate with film brats at home and abroad. It certainly seems like he at least has Quentin Tarantino’s vote.
The final spot should go to another Cannes alum, Brazil’s Kleber Mendonça Filho – making that a grand total of five Cannes films in this particular shortlist! It makes complete sense if you take into account how international this particular branch has grown over the last decade. This is a strong lineup that won’t budge easily. We could potentially be looking at a very similar list come nomination morning.