The New York Film Critics Circle, or NYFCC for short, kicks off the year-end awards gauntlet each December, and while I’ve long believed their prominence comes largely from being first on the critics-accolade calendar, they remain a group that votes with its own tastes rather than any intention of forecasting the Oscars. Precisely because their choices tend to feel “genuine”—untouched by lobbying and uninterested in industry narrative—they often exert a quiet but sincere influence on what Academy voters decide to catch up on before filling out their ballots. With that in mind, here’s who we think will have reason to celebrate on Tuesday and feel encouraged about their Oscar chances.
Best Cinematography
Janus Films’ Resurrection looks like the kind of uniquely cinematic experience that NYFCC members will have trouble shaking off. The technical mastery and creative vision required to render its dreamy, surreal visuals is something the group could be enthusiastic about rewarding here. On the other hand, the elegant black and white cinematography of French New Wave homage Nouvelle Vague could prove just as tempting a pick for the cineasts, if less decidedly less colorful. Meanwhile the pioneering camera system and naturally-lit vistas of Lav Diaz’s historical epic Magellan could also find favor with the group. And with the group’s recent election of Oppenheimer and Top Gun: Maverick for wins in this category, there is an excellent chance that Autumn Durald Arkapaw’s IMAX work on Sinners could clinch this win for blockbuster cinema and studio filmmaking.
Jules’ Prediction:
Resurrection
Alternate – Sinners
Joseph’s Prediction:
Magellan
Alternate – Resurrection
Best First Film
With no surefire first feature director running away with “best of the year” accolades for their debut, in the vein of Celine Song for Past Lives or Charlotte Wells for Aftersun, expect the NYFCC to take advantage and spotlight a more intimate, overlooked indie gem.
A24’s Sorry, Baby should be the odds on favorite considering how well A24 has featured in this category. Their previous winners include Janet Planet, Past Lives, Aftersun, and Eighth Grade. However, Sarah Friedland’s graceful exploration on aging Familiar Touch could be a formidable dark horse to ruin A24’s win streak. If not, Carson Lund’s charming and unassuming sports film Eephus could also prove irresistible.
Jules’ Prediction:
Sorry, Baby
Alternate – Familiar Touch
Joseph’s Prediction:
Familiar Touch
Alternate – Eephus
Best Animated Feature
The NYFCC won’t usually discriminate against mainstream populist entertainment in this category, so it’s very possible we may see the global streaming phenomenon KPop Demon Hunters win this category by wide margin. If so, it would mark the third animation win for Sony in this category after Spiderman: Into the Spiderverse and The Mitchells Vs. the Machines. The latter was also the first Netflix and Sony collaboration to get a win as well. Critics have responded well to Zootopia 2 after its holiday premiere, and the first film even managed a win here in 2016 in a very competitive category. However, the group has largely ignored Disney productions as of late.
Because the year’s animation slate isn’t the most compelling, the NYFCC may opt to highlight a more unorthodox pick. Scarlet, Arco and Little Amélie will each make a play for an Oscar nomination. But because none are runaway critics’ darlings, the group may take the opportunity to recognize the legendary Quay brothers, whose latest stop-motion wonder had a limited release in New York City theaters. If not, don’t be surprised if they choose another title out of left field, such as the well-reviewed animated reimagining of the Predator series Predator: Killer of Killers which premiered at Tribeca.
Jules’ Prediction:
KPop Demon Hunters
Alternate – Scarlet
Joseph’s Prediction:
Sanatorium Under the Sign of the Hourglass
Alternate – Scarlet
Best Non-Fiction Film
It may be too bold, poetic and idiosyncratic for Oscar voters, but Kahlil Joseph’s shape-shifting debut BLKNWS: Terms & Conditions stands an excellent chance of winning at the NYFCC. Although the group will have plenty of strong titles to choose from, few will come close to having created the same purely cinematic experience as Joseph’s vast, dynamic exploration on Black identity. Nonetheless, with the exception of recent work by Frederick Wiseman, a win at the NYFCC has signaled a bright future ahead for documentary Oscar contenders. Although the film won’t feature the traditional documentary structure that appeals to most voters, a win here could only help convince voters to give it due consideration.
Jules’ Prediction:
BLKNWS: Terms & Conditions
Alternate – Cover-Up
Joseph’s Prediction:
BLKNWS: Terms & Conditions
Alternate – My Undesirable Friends, Part 1: Last Air in Moscow
Best International Film
After winning the Palme D’Or at Cannes, Jafar Panahi is the likely favorite to win International Film. Ironically, the last time Panahi won anything at the NYFCC was in this same category in 1996 for his directorial debut! However, if anything were to spoil his chances here it could be just that. It’s not unheard of for the NYFCC to award the same filmmaker twice in this category. Recent examples include Pawel Pawlikowski, Pedro Almodóvar and Olivier Assayas (who even managed to earn wins consecutively in 2009 and 2010). However, since it’s also not common practice, it’s certainly within the realm of possibility that the group opts to reward Panahi elsewhere, such as Best Director or even Best Film. If so Brazil’s The Secret Agent would make a good alternative, except that director Kleber Mendonça Filho also won this category recently for Bacurau in 2020. Mascha Schilinski’s Sound of Falling could find an angle for the win, as could Oliver Laxe’s Sirat from Spain. But if the group feels like handing it to a filmmaker for the first time, they may just have no other choice but to finally give it to Park Chan-wook for his timely thriller and celebrated career.
Jules’ Prediction:
It Was Just An Accident
Alternate – Sound of Falling
Joseph’s Prediction:
It Was Just An Accident
Alternate – The Secret Agent
Best Screenplay
Traditionally the NYFCC shies away from handing this win to international titles. You’d have to go all the way back to the 1970s to find the last time they awarded a foreign language film with Best Screenplay. That being said, the abundance of rich work from international contenders this year may finally see that extended dry spell come to an end. Back in 2021, Joachim Trier earned the Best International Film mention for The Worst Person in the World. Like Panahi and It Was Just An Accident, if the group wanted to honor the filmmaker in another category then Sentimental Value could find itself being spotlighted for its screenplay. The film’s layered characters and introspective musings on art and cinema may well give it the boost it needs to win.
Although this award is usually reserved for writer-directors, the studied, authentic feeling of Blue Moon could potentially see novelist Robert Kaplow winning for his first screenplay. If not, this may be the most ideal place to recognize what could possibly be a hometown favorite in New York’s own Marty Supreme. We still don’t have official word from the critics in regards to the film. But if reactions following the secret screening at the New York Film Festival are any indication, then this film may end up going over in a major way with the NYFCC. If the film screened too late or is a little more polarizing than initially imagined, then Best Screenplay could be an adequate compensation prize. Between Josh Safdie winning Best Director recently for Uncut Gems and Timothée Chalamet taking Best Actor in 2017 for Call Me By Your Name, the NYFCC may look beyond either of those categories to give the film a mention. And if Best Picture is as locked-up as we’d like to believe, then this may be the group’s last chance to keep the film from going away empty handed.
Jules’ Prediction:
Sentimental Value
Alternate – It Was Just An Accident
Joseph’s Prediction:
Marty Supreme
Alternate – Blue Moon
Best Supporting Actress
The NYFCC can often space to reward a performance from a mainstream film that appealed to both critics and general audiences. With the somewhat directionless nature of Best Supporting Actress, where no clear frontrunner has emerged, this would likely be the place for such a choice. Warner Bros. may feature two of the best candidates in Wunmi Mosaku for Sinners and Amy Madigan for Weapons. Then again, since neither film is what typically entices the high-brow NYFCC this may already feel like a stretch. If so, then Warner Bros. should walk away the winner anyway with either Teyana Taylor or Regina Hall taking the victory for their work in One Battle After Another. Since Hall recently won Best Actress for Support the Girls in 2018, Taylor should probably hold the slight edge between the two.
Jules’ Prediction:
Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
Alternate – Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Joseph’s Prediction:
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Alternate – Amy Madigan, Weapons
Best Supporting Actor
Although foreign-language performances have rarely triumphed in the supporting categories at the NYFCC, Stellan Skarsgård’s poignant role as the regretful director and his distinguished career should be just enough to make him one of the exceptions. If not, then fan-favorite Benicio del Toro might be able to win for his scene-stealing performance in One Battle After Another, twenty-five years after winning the same category for his Oscar bound work in Traffic. Meanwhile, a win for Adam Sandler’s role as a devoted manager in Jay Kelly would be a significant boon for his Oscar chances. If Stellan does miss out, then it wouldn’t be the craziest prospect to see him sidelined for his own son Alexander Skarsgård whose surprising performance in Pillion seems to gain more fans with each new screening.
Jules’ Prediction:
Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Alternate – Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
Joseph’s Prediction:
Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Alternate – Alexander Skarsgård, Pillion
Best Actress
One of the most urgent and consequential decisions of the day for the NYFCC. Although she’s far from a sure thing at the Oscars, many feel comfortable predicting this win for Rose Byrne in the Best Actress category for her performance in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You. This is a crucial stop for her Oscar chances. Staggering performances in uncompromising films are never guaranteed a spot among an Oscar category’s final five, even when the work has the additional pedigree of being selected by the New York Film Critics Circle. So, even a win here shouldn’t get A24 feeling overly confident about Byrne’s chances. But the win would only boost her visibility with Oscar voters. On the other hand, if she misses here it could be fatal. Few are the performances from unsettling, challenging films that can secure Oscar nominations without first garnering a win at the NYFCC. If a performance of this caliber fails to gain traction here, then something dire may be afoot.
Jules’ Prediction:
Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Alternate – Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee
Joseph’s Prediction:
Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Alternate – Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Best Actor
The odds on favorite to win the Oscar at the moment is Timothée Chalamet for Marty Supreme. And his film is rumored to be a substantial favorite among the New York crowd after its New York Film Festival premiere. However, young Chalamet already won this category back in 2017 for his breakout performance in Call Me By Your Name. Multiple winners in this category include Daniel Day-Lewis, Robert De Niro and Jack Nicholson, who’ve each won more than twice. It’s interesting to note that each of those actors had previously won the Best Supporting Actor honor at the New York Film Critics Circle before ever winning Best Actor. Were Chalamet to win for Marty Supreme, he would not only be one of the youngest actors to win twice in this category and one who did it the quickest, but he’d also be one of the few to win without ever being named Best Supporting Actor by the group. If they decide to wait on giving Chalamet a second win for Best Actor, there are a number of contenders specifically from international titles which may appeal to them. They could side with either Wagner Moura in The Secret Agent or Lee Byung-hun from No Other Choice from example, two titles being campaigned by Neon. Or maybe they’ll expand the conversation around Best Actor a little further and decided to mention the under-championed Sergi Lopez for his work in yet another Neon title Sirat.
Jules’ Prediction:
Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
Alternate – Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice
Joseph’s Prediction:
Sergi Lopéz, Sirat
Alternate – Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice
Best Film and Best Director
Throughout his career, Paul Thomas Anderson and his films have been a mainstay at the New York Film Critics Circle. Boogie Nights won Burt Reynolds Best Supporting Actor in 1997. And although Magnolia and Punch-Drunk Love failed to reap any mentions, Anderson’s iconic There Will Be Blood saw the filmmaker grab wins in Best Actor for Daniel Day-Lewis and Best Cinematography for longtime collaborator Robert Elswitt. The film would also come in second for Best Film and Best Director, losing to No Country For Old Men. After another hiatus, the filmmaker’s long-awaited return The Master was again a runner-up at the NYFCC for Best Cinematography, Best Actor, Best Director and Best Film. He finally captured a pair of Best Screenplay wins for Phantom Thread in 2017 and Licorice Pizza in 2021. But the groups highest honor has always alluded him. This year, PTA seems perfectly positioned to finally nab duel wins for Best Director and Best Film for his instant American classic One Battle After Another. The reward feels (hopefully) inevitable this time around. If the group gets skittish for some reason about handing Anderson both categories, then either Cannes favorite It Was Just An Accident or Sentimental Value could step in. But this feels like a stretch, considering how beloved Anderson’s film is by critics. If a spoiler were to be lurking anywhere, then it may just be in the shape of Marty Supreme – a New York story whose appeal stills remains an uncertainty in the Oscar race. It can’t hurt that it was one of the last films to be screened this year, recency bias could take hold as it did in 2013 for American Hustle. Or maybe the NYFCC would relish an opportunity to shakeup the conversation or surprise onlookers. Either way, the feverish rollout of the film during the New York Film Festival could be enough to foster passionate support among enough members of the group to get Marty Supreme over the top.
Best Director
Jules’ and Joseph’s Prediction:
Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Alternate – Jafar Panahi, It Was Just An Accident
Best Film
Jules’ Prediction:
One Battle After Another
Alternate – Sentimental Value
Joseph’s Prediction:
One Battle After Another
Alternate – Marty Supreme