This category is all over the place this year. Animation continues to grow in popularity with critics and audiences in the U.S., with expanding and refining tastes eager for new storytellers rather than established industry-leading studio projects. The seismic shifts we’re witnessing in the field right now really demand, and deserve, thoughtful analysis, which we hope to cover in greater detail in the future. But for the purposes of our series “IF THE OSCARS WERE TOMORROW,” let’s try to investigate how voters may respond when this traditionally populist category at the Oscars has to deal with the grim reality that audiences are simply not responding to mainstream studio output.
Ground rules to keep in mind. For the best possible accuracy, we’ll be considering not just every film that’s opened theatrically to date, but also every film SCREENED thus far that has both secured distribution and is already dated for release. These screenings may include any of the big festivals from the first half of the year or earlier. Films exclusively screened privately for the industry or press will not count. *
Animated Feature
1 – Arco (Neon)
2 – The King of Kings (Angel Studios)
3 – Ne Zha 2 (A24)
4 – Sanatorium Under the Sign of the Hourglass (KimStim)
5 – The Glassworker (Watermelon Pictures)
As incredible as it sounds, when taking stock of the early contenders it looks as though the keystones of the animation industry may have to sit this year out! Dreamworks Animation’s “Dog Man” adaptation was only a modest success earlier in the year, and their recent summer release “The Bad Guys 2,” a sequel to a project they couldn’t land a nomination for in 2022, isn’t making much noise at the box-office either. Meanwhile, it’s difficult to label the arrival of Pixar’s long-awaited “Elio” as anything other than an epic bomb that will leave lasting ripple effects in the company. The troubled Paramount put its chips behind a fully animated version of the “Smurfs,” directed by Academy Award nominee Chris Miller of “Puss in Boots” fame no less, but that film too was essentially dead-on-arrival. You’re unlikely to find many compelling reasons to include any of these titles on a shortlist. Whatever impression that may give you, there were plenty of success stories in the industry too – it’s just that a significant portion of these films simply won’t be eligible for consideration!
At this stage the release dates of many serious contenders remain undetermined, which greatly benefits the aggressive approach that Neon is rolling out for “Arco.” The mini-major picked up the celebrated, Natalie Portman-backed film after its premiere at Cannes, and has dated the film for an awards-friendly fall release and lined up a major voice cast of industry veterans for the U.S. dub, including Portman herself! Neon got its first taste of success in the animated race with another Cannes selection back in 2023, Spain’s “Robot Dreams.” It was a critics’ darling on the animated circuit all year long, before finally earning a nomination. They’re hoping that “Arco” can follow in its footsteps and ultimately seal the deal this time for a win.
The second spot should go to an animated film that was the lone bright spot at the box-office this year. “The King of Kings” shored up $60 million for the burgeoning independent distributor Angel Studios, whose footprint in the U.S. continues to expand. This category has never before recognized a film that deals with any particular religion, although you’d have to imagine that the runaway success of Dreamworks Animations’ “The Prince of Egypt” would have figured into the category in a major way had it existed in 1998. In a year with bleak box-office earnings among contenders, it may prove difficult to overlook the film’s financial success. Aside from that, the film boasts two major factors that could break in its favor. The first is its star-studded voice cast, featuring Oscar nominees Kenneth Branagh, Uma Thurman, Ben Kingsley and Forest Whitaker, as well as industry veterans Oscar Isaac, Pierce Brosnan and Mark Hamill. If their participation signals an inviting attitude from the voting body in general, then the film is in very good shape. Secondly, this particular religious film has the advantage of framing itself as an adaptation of a work from the quintessential author Charles Dickens. Charles Dickens, as a brand, carries a level of pedigree that has historically done well at the Oscars, and voters may relish an opportunity to finally nominate a project in the animated feature category that originates from the beloved author’s collection. If Angel Studios is serious about slicing into the business of the majors and campaigns with extreme rigor, then this may be be their best opportunity to get a seat at the table and announce themselves as legitimate threats.
Speaking of box-office success stories, the next film in line for a nod boasts $20 million in domestic receipts, which doesn’t sound like much but when put in the correct context is actually enormous. CMC Pictures’ sequel “Ne Zha 2” is already the international box-office king with a total haul exceeding $2 billion. Anything it picks up at the U.S. front is not even icing on the cake at this point, it’s just sprinkles. For an international import relying heavily on word-of-mouth, a $20 million earning is like setting the major animated studios’ house on fire after they’ve already lost their roof – insult to injury. It proves that outsiders can indeed do it just as good if not better, and that even the home-crowd is taking the bait. If you add that the ever on-the-pulse, cultural tastemaker A24 is suddenly taking an interest, the situation could grow more dire. A24 has partnered with CMC on an English-dubbed re-release for U.S. audiences that could potentially break past that $20 million ceiling. The collaboration for both brands could be massive, substantially growing their respective reach. If A24 can make strong headlines on its distribution, they can easily execute a viral campaign to have “Ne Zha 2” in strong consideration for a nod. I would imagine the mini-major was all-eyes in 2022 when “RRR” was able to find once-in-a-lifetime crossover success and had U.S. audiences championing its inclusion at the Oscars. No strangers to the animated race after their breakout film “Marcel the Shell with Shoes On” crashed the category that same year, expect A24 to launch a similar playbook on the heels of any success with this strategic partnership.
The branch has always found room to rightfully spotlight pioneering icons of the animated industry, artists like Hayao Miyazaki, Adam Elliot and Michael Dudok de Wit, to name a few. With the limited contenders so far this year, can we potentially be in the right circumstances to finally see Oscar recognition for the ground-breaking work of the Quay brothers? Specialty distributor KimStim is releasing their latest film “Sanatorium Under the Sign of the Hourglass” in limited art-house theaters. The experimental, idiosyncratic stop-motion storytelling of the Quay’s is not the typical preference for voters. But life-long admirer Christopher Nolan has recently introduced the brothers to a whole new set of film fans. The Oscar-winning filmmaker has lent his brand to the promotion of the film, and if his influence with voters can extend beyond his own work then the branch may really take this nomination into consideration.
The fifth spot could potentially go to either the fringe indie-animation “Boys Go To Jupiter,” a colorful, zany coming-of-age fantasy, or the family-friendly biopic-cum-children’s film “Hola, Frida” on the iconic Frida Kahlo. However, given Latvia’s cinderella-run last year, perhaps the branch would prefer to champion “The Glassworker,” Pakistan’s first hand-drawn full-length animated feature. The film was originally submitted for consideration in the International Film category last year by Pakistan, although it never advanced. It’s unclear what kind of campaign its small distributor could launch for the film, but if voters are enthusiastic about making history again, then it’s an easy choice.