As the 2025 Gotham Independent Film Awards nominations are set to be announced, anticipation is high for what many consider the first major awards season precursor of the year. The Gotham Film Awards, presented by the Gotham Film & Media Institute, have long been a reliable early indicator of the industry’s critical favorites — and this year’s lineup promises to give us our first real sense of how film critics and tastemakers are responding to the most acclaimed performances and independent films of 2025.
How the Gotham Awards Influence the Oscars
The importance of the Gotham nominations shouldn’t be underestimated: their choices often echo throughout the season, with notable overlap between Gotham honorees and the Oscars. Just last year, Neon’s Anora and Amazon/MGM’s Nickel Boys, both Gotham Best Film nominees, went on to earn Best Picture nominations at the Academy Awards. And 2023 featured an especially prophetic list at the Gotham Film Awards as eventual Oscars Best Picture nominees Past Lives, Anatomy of a Fall, Poor Things and The Zone of Interest all found themselves shortlisted for either Best Film or Best International Feature at the prestigious indie celebration.
Now that the Gotham Film Awards has eliminated eligibility requirements based on production budgets, it’s tricky to tell how bigger studio projects will figure into their lineup. Sometimes the studios openly discourage accolades from the group – like 2023’s Oppenheimer or Killers of the Flower Moon. Then again, Barbie was considered and even nominated for the performance of Ryan Gosling that same year. The biggest question mark this year is whether Warner Bros. will factor into the nominations with Weapons, Sinners and (especially) Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another. WB didn’t shy away from campaigning Barbie here, so why should they have a change of heart this year? Even so, will the group feel like spotlighting any of these mega-budgeted films over more overlooked indie gems?
Here’s who we predict will be nominated for the Gotham Independent Film Awards and may get a head start on their Oscar hopes…
Best Film – Focus Features vs. A24
BLACK BAG (Focus Features)
HAMNET (Focus Features)
IF I HAD LEGS I’D KICK YOU (A24)
MARTY SUPREME (A24)
THE TESTAMENT OF ANN LEE (Searchlight)
Best International Feature
APRIL (Metrograph)
IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT (Neon)
ON BECOMING A GUINEA FOWL (A24)
RESSURECTION (Janus)
THE SECRET AGENT (Neon)
SENTIMENTAL VALUE (Neon)
Best Director
Mary Bronstein, IF I HAD LEGS I’D KICK YOU
Kleber Mendonça Filho, THE SECRET AGENT
Jafar Panahi, IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT
Josh Safdie, MARTY SUPREME
Chloé Zhao, HAMNET
Breakthrough Director
Harris Dickinson, URCHIN
Harry Lighton, PILLION
Morrisa Maltz, JAZZY
Alex Russell, LURKER
Eva Victor, SORRY, BABY
One Battle After Another Cast Aims for Major Breakout
Lead Performance
Jessie Buckley, HAMNET
Rose Byrne, IF I HAD LEGS I’D KICK YOU
Timothée Chalamet, MARTY SUPREME
Ethan Hawke, BLUE MOON
Jennifer Lawrence, DIE MY LOVE
Wagner Moura, THE SECRET AGENT
Josh O’Connor, THE MASTERMIND
Renata Reinsve, SENTIMENTAL VALUE
Amanda Seyfried, THE TESTAMENT OF ANN LEE
Ben Whishaw, PETER HUJAR’S DAY
Supporting Performance
Aidan Delbis, BUGONIA
Benicio Del Toro, ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
Kirsten Dunst, ROOFMAN
Elle Fanning, SENTIMENTAL VALUE
Nina Hoss, HEDDA
David Jonsson, THE LONG WALK
Wunmi Mosaku, SINNERS
Alexander Skarsgård, PILLION
Stellan Skarsgård, SENTIMENTAL VALUE
Teyana Taylor, ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
Breakthrough Performance
Odessa A’zion, MARTY SUPREME
Miles Caton, SINNERS
Chase Infiniti, ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
Dylan O’Brien, TWINLESS
Tonatiuh, KISS OF THE SPIDER WOMAN
Eva Victor, SORRY, BABY
Best Screenplay
MARTY SUPREME
NO OTHER CHOICE
SENTIMENTAL VALUE
SORRY, BABY
TWINLESS
Best Documentary Feature
BLKNWS: TERMS & CONDITIONS
DEAF PRESIDENT NOW
MR. NOBODY AGAINST PUTIN
THE PERFECT NEIGHBOR
PREDATORS
Predicted Tally – Sentimental Value Battles Marty for Supremacy at Gotham
MARTY SUPREME – 5
SENTIMENTAL VALUE – 5
HAMNET – 3
IF I HAD LEGS I’D KICK YOU – 3
ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER – 3
THE SECRET AGENT – 3
SORRY, BABY – 3
IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT – 2
PILLION – 2
SINNERS – 2
THE TESTAMENT OF ANN LEE – 2
TWINLESS – 2
You can check out nominees for the Gotham Film Awards here and watch live coverage on YouTube. As always, catch up with our latest Oscars predictions here!