As is traditionally the case, the east coast film critics of the United States will be first out of the gate with singling out the year’s best in film. We’ll be watching a New York double-bill on the Oscar circuit as the Gotham Film Awards announce winners on Monday, December 1st and the New York Film Critics Circle follow that up with their own selection the following day, Tuesday December 2nd. You should of course see significant overlap between the films and performances spotlighted at each. Let’s unpack what’s likely to occur with our 2025 Gotham Film Awards Predictions.
After their nominees polarized the film community, the Gotham Film Awards’ winners may illustrate whether they took some of those criticisms to heart or will instead continue to go their own way despite the risk of alienating their fans. Here’s what we believe you should expect to see on Monday night and what it might mean going forward for potential Oscar contenders.
Chase Infiniti Chases Best Actress Contention
Best Breakthrough Performance
A$AP Rocky – Highest2Lowest
Sebiye Behtiyar – Preparation for the Next Life
Chase Infiniti – One Battle After Another
Abou Sangaré – Souleymane’s Story
Tonatiuh – Kiss of the Spider Woman
A strong list of performances that left an impression on critics and fans this year. A$AP Rocky is listed for his scene-stealing turn as the villainous Yung Felon in Spike Lee’s Highest2Lowest, but we’re certain he’ll have just as many fans for his more subtle work in Gotham favorite If I Had Legs I’d Kick You. His work across both A24 films may just make him a substantial dark horse in this category. Tonatiuh’s dimensional interpretation of Molina in Kiss of the Spider Woman had won over critics since the film’s Sundance bow. A significant contingent would relish the opportunity to see him shortlisted among the Best Actor lineup at the Oscars. A win here could signal wider support for the performance among critics as they begin to deliberate their favorites of the year. Ironically enough, we believe the win will likely be between the most celebrated film on the list, One Battle After Another, and one of the most overlooked films of the year, Preparations for the Next Life. Although rewarding Sebiye Behtiyar for her role in Preparations for the Next Life will definitely lend the film some much needed and deserved exposure among the film community, the excitement surrounding Chase Infiniti’s star turn in One Battle After Another should carry her to a victory. Expect Infiniti’s name to be mentioned time and time again as this year’s major breakout, and she’ll need every single accolade she can get to boost her chances of competing alongside the tenured list of actors angling for Best Actress this year.
Predicted Winner – Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another)
Spoiler – Sebiye Behtiyar (Preparation for the Next Life)
Breakthrough Director
Constance Tsang – Blue Sun Palace
Carson Lund – Eephus
Sarah Friedland – Familiar Touch
Akinola Davies Jr. – My Father’s Shadow
Harris Dickinson – Urchin
A category that the Gotham Film Awards have thankfully continued to champion. Actor Harris Dickinson may just be the highest profile name among the nominees with his directorial debut Urchin. With his work on Beach Rats, Triangle of Sadness and Babygirl among others, he’s solidified himself as one of the most talented young artists working in the film industry today and that may give him an edge. However, seeing as Sarah Friedland’s Familiar Touch managed to score an unlikely nomination in the Best Feature category, we believe the group will take the opportunity to champion her sensitively-wrought debut.
Predicted Winner – Sarah Friedland (Familiar Touch)
Spoiler – Harris Dickinson (Urchin)
For the first time, the Gotham Film Awards have decided to divide their Screenplay category, mirroring the Adapted/Original format customary throughout most of the awards circuit and at the Academy Awards.
The most nominated films of the year, One Battle After Another and If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, could potentially win each category since they won’t be facing off against each other. But we think the organization will prefer to highlight a few of their other favorites who won’t have a chance to win elsewhere.
Best Adapted Screenplay
No Other Choice
One Battle After Another
Pillion
Preparation for the Next Life
Train Dreams
On the Adapted Screenplay front, each of the shortlisted films scored multiple nominations with the jury. Train Dreams is even listed in the Best Feature category, where filmmakers Greg Kwedar and Clint Bentley shockingly missed last year with their heavily-favored Sing Sing. Their collective success between both films could see them walking away with a win here. Their biggest challenger may be No Other Choice from Park Chan-wook and Neon. The film didn’t qualify in the Best Feature category since it’s a South Korean production, but it did score an additional two nominations. Our impression is the prospect of having Park Chan-wook on stage will prove too tempting an offer to pass up for the Gothams.
Predicted Winner – No Other Choice
Spoiler – Train Dreams
Best Original Screenplay
If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
It Was Just An Accident
The Secret Agent
Sorry, Baby
Sound of Falling
Unlike its Adapted counterpart, Original Screenplay featured a whopping three international films in the lineup! However, the three may just end up splitting the vote among themselves in favor of the American titles. Both premiered to rapturous acclaim at the Sundance Film Festival. The jury may feel this is the most opportune category to recognize Mary Bronstein for a film they undoubtedly adored. But, we feel the A24 vehicle is destined for bigger things that night. A24’s other indie gem Sorry, Baby may be the perfect candidate for this win. Although first-time filmmaker Eva Victor was snubbed from the Breakthrough Director category, Sorry, Baby still earned a nomination in the Best Feature category which means the group is genuinely enthusiastic about her debut. Victor’s unique voice and poignant filmmaking was the biggest takeaway for critics and audiences, so the film seems poised to walk away with a win here.
Predicted Winner – Sorry, Baby
Spoiler – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Neon pits Jafar Panahi vs. Park Chan-wook
Best International Feature
It Was Just An Accident
No Other Choice
Nouvelle Vague
Resurrection
Sound of Falling
It feels like this will be a duel between two Neon favorites. It Was Just An Accident and No Other Choice each received three nominations from the Gothams. One film walked away with the coveted Palme D’Or while the other was unceremoniously snubbed of the Golden Lion at the Venice Film Festival – much to the ire of the global film community. It’s anyone’s guess which of the two triumphs in the end. But we feel the Gothams will want to see both films walk away with a moment at the podium. If Best Director proves too competitive for Jafar Panahi to keep step, then this is certainly the category where we’re likely to see him triumph.
Predicted Winner – It Was Just An Accident
Spoiler – No Other Choice
Best Documentary Feature
2000 Meters to Andriivka
BLKNWS: Terms & Conditions
My Undesirable Friends: Part 1 – Last Air in Moscow
The Perfect Neighbor
Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk
Low-key the most competitive category of the night. Each of the celebrated films can make a strong case for the win. This is definitely anyone’s race. If we pressed to make a call, then we’d likely back Julia Loktev’s prescient My Undersirable Friends: Part 1 – Last Air in Moscow. The Gothams have celebrated Loktev before for her narrative features, and the growing urgency of this situation at home and abroad could make this the perfect moment to recognize her courageous effort in tackling this film.
Predicted Winner – My Undesirable Friends: Part 1 – Last Air in Moscow
Spoiler – The Perfect Neighbor
Can Snubbed Sentimental Value Make A Comeback Win?
Outstanding Supporting Performance
Benicio del Toro – One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas – Sentimental Value
Indya Moore – Father Mother Sister Brother
Wunmi Mosaku – Sinners
Adam Sandler – Jay Kelly
Andrew Scott – Blue Moon
Alexander Skarsgård – Pillion
Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value
Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another
One of the most fascinating categories of the evening may hinge upon whether films with duel nominees end up cancelling each other out. This year’s lineup featured two films scoring nearly half of all the nominations in this category! One Battle After Another saw Teyana Taylor and Benicio del Toro reap nods – though it certainly isn’t as many nominations as the film could have scored here considering that Sean Penn and Regina Hall were left off the list. Meanwhile, Sentimental Value had an extraordinarily poor showing at the Gothams considering it’s one of the most critically acclaimed films of the year and a standout from the Cannes Film Festival. Nonetheless, Stellan Skarsgård and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas did manage nominations in this category. If the Gothams are desperate to hand Neon’s Sentimental Value any kind of award, then expect to see the veteran Skarsgård get the win. However, the overall lack of enthusiasm for the film could make him a longer shot than you’d expect. If that’s the case, don’t be surprised if Teyana Taylor’s powder keg performance in One Battle After Another squeaks out a victory, especially since she probably just missed a Gotham win for her breakthrough in A Thousand and One back in 2022.
Predicted Winner – Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)
Spoiler – Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)
Buckley vs. Byrne, Round #1
Outstanding Lead Performance
Jessie Buckley – Hamnet
Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Lee Byung-hun – No Other Choice
Sope Dirisu – My Father’s Shadow
Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon
Jennifer Lawrence – Die My Love
Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent
Josh O’ Conner – The Mastermind
Amanda Seyfried – The Testament of Ann Lee
Tessa Thompson – Hedda
A lineup of critics’ faves who will try to mount formidable Oscar campaigns in the coming months, this race should essentially come down to two – Jessie Buckley and Rose Byrne. Byrne would appear to have the momentum given that her career-best performance in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You is the very cornerstone of the film, which is clearly a favorite among the Gotham juries. However, Hamnet did score a mention for Best Feature alongside Buckley (albeit in an expanded list of nominees). Additionally, Chloé Zhao has an established track record with the Gothams, which extends as far back as her early works including The Rider in 2018. If that weren’t enough to swing things in Jessie Buckley’s favor, consider that Buckley has earned an astounding four Gotham nominations throughout her career! Can she finally win for her heartbreaking performance in Hamnet? This is yet another extraordinarily tight race, with only a slight margin between the two favorites. In the end, we have to side with Rose Byrne due to the film’s extensive nomination haul.
Predicted Winner – Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You)
Spoiler – Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)
Best Feature – PTA vs. A24
This year the Gothams opted for an extended list of ten nominees in Best Feature. The result is a smorgasbord of indie gems, expensive Oscar players and even a major studio release. The lineup has sparked debate online among the film faithful and rightfully so. Deciphering the favorite to win here may ultimately come down to whether the Gothams will double-down on their controversial expansion of eligible films or if instead they’ll appease critics and reward the smaller, more intimate indie fare they’ve staked their reputation on celebrating.
Barring a stunning (and welcome) shock, the win should be between Warner Bros’ One Battle After Another and A24’s If I Had Legs I’d Kick You. Both films also quietly competing for longest film title of the year! Ironically enough, both titles also share a producer, which means Sara Murphy is a winner no matter what happens! One Battle After Another broke Gotham records this year when it earned six nominations. This in itself may be a strong foreshadowing for the kind of year that awaits the film, as it sets its sights on breaking all kinds of records this awards circuit. In fact, Warner Bros is hoping to campaign their three-headed monster (One Battle After Another – Sinners – Weapons) to the kind of Oscar dominance never seen before. Paul Thomas Anderson did earn a nomination in this category back in 2012 with The Master. It was the film’s lone nomination and it came up short in the end. Will the Gothams feel they owe a debt to the trailblazing filmmaker? Will their recent moves to widen the pool of eligible films embolden them to FINALLY hand Best Feature to a major studio? Especially a legendary one that’s been making headlines with rumors of its intention to sell?
On the other hand, A24’s If I Had Legs I’d Kick You will make a formidable foe. Not only is the challenging, uncompromising work from Mary Bronstein the type of film they traditionally champion, but also A24 has dominated this category as of late. The mini-major has picked up three of the last four wins in this category, including a sizable upset when last year’s A Different Man beat out eventual Oscar winner Anora from Neon. The stakes are (unfortunately) massive for A24’s hopeful. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You is the kind of difficult watch that Oscar voters have to be compelled into watching. And every accolade it wins will make a stronger case for serious Oscar consideration among a body of voters who more often than not prefer films that are easy and familiar. More importantly, a win for Best Feature puts If I Had Legs I’d Kick You in the path to likely secure at least one Oscar nomination. Of the films that have won here before, only Chloé Zhao’s The Rider failed to score any kind of Oscar nomination. Ironically, Zhao would go on to win Best Picture at the Oscars for Nomadland just a few years later. Of the Best Feature winners, only 2013’s Inside Llewyn Davis and last year’s A Different Man failed to reap major Oscar nominations, though they did land mentions for Cinematography, Sound Mixing and Makeup. Interestingly though not unrelated, Sebastian Stan, A Different Man‘s best shot at a major nomination, still earned a Best Actor nod that year for his performance in The Apprentice. Were A24 to continue its hot streak and squeak out a win for Best Feature, it would be a major coup in the campaign to get Rose Byrne nominated for Best Actress this year. But…. if even the Gotham Film Awards can’t muster enough passion to seal the deal for If I Had Legs I’d Kick You in the Best Feature and Outstanding Lead Performance categories, then how much hope does the film really have with Academy members?
Our feeling is the Gothams will spread the wealth and opt to support A24 (yet again) in Best Feature for If I Had Legs I’d Kick You. This will allow the group to finally hand Paul Thomas Anderson a win in the Best Director category, which should keep Warner Bros from feeling too disappointed.
Best Director
Mary Bronstein – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Jafar Panahi – It Was Just An Accident
Kelly Reichardt – The Mastermind
Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another
Oliver Laxe – Sirāt
Predicted Winner – Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)
Spoiler – Mary Bronstein (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You)
Best Feature
Bugonia (Focus Features)
East of Wall (Sony Pictures Classics)
Familiar Touch (Music Box)
Hamnet (Focus Features)
If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (A24)
Lurker (Mubi)
One Battle After Another (Warner Bros)
Sorry, Baby (A24)
The Testament of Ann Lee (Searchlight)
Train Dreams (Netflix)
Predicted Winner – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (A24)
Spoiler – One Battle After Another (Warner Bros)