Here’s our take on one of the most competitive Oscar categories this year for the “IF THE OSCARS WERE TOMORROW” series. We’re breaking down which Actor contenders can feel safe heading into the fall, and which have to worry.
Ground rules to keep in mind. For the best possible accuracy, we’ll be considering not just every film that’s opened theatrically to date, but also every film SCREENED thus far that has both secured distribution and is already dated for release. These screenings may include any of the big festivals from the first half of the year or earlier. Films exclusively screened privately for the industry or press will not count. *
Actor
1 – Michael B. Jordan (Sinners)
2 – Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)
3 – Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams)
4 – Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon)
5 – Denzel Washington (Highest 2 Lowest)
This lineup will give the impression that a few of these entries are no-brainers. But, this particular acting category is stacked this year! None of these contenders should feel out of the weeds, because this will be an especially arduous nomination to secure all year long. That said, there are a number of these campaigns which are officially on defense before the start of fall festival season.
In a year where dual roles have been all the rage (Mickey 17, Alto Knights, Twinless), no acting contender is going to benefit more from it than Michael B. Jordan as the headliner for “Sinners.” He’s put in the work in the industry to be classified as a bona-fide leading man, and yet unlike say Paul Mescal or Sebastian Stan he’s failed to land Oscar recognition – despite praised performances in baity fare like “Fruitvale Station,” “Black Panther,” “Creed,” and “Just Mercy.” A few of those titles received Oscar nominations elsewhere, “Creed” even saw Stallone get a second career acting nod, but Jordan’s work, even in biographical material, was ignored. There’s no doubt that his number is due, and this may finally be the year. The problem is that the film’s genre-shifting nature is something that the acting branch usually doesn’t respond to, especially in the lead acting categories where they tend to be more picky. As of right now, it’s Jordan’s nomination to lose, but the fangs on the movie may bite him in the end.
Then we have the Best Actor winner out of Cannes, Wagner Moura from “The Secret Agent.” He will definitely benefit from being Neon’s sole focus in the category this year. The “Narcos” star has also seen his profile rise significantly with voting members of the Academy after a standout turn in A24’s “Civil War” and a scene-stealing voice-acting job on Dreamworks Animation’s “Puss in Boots: The Last Wish.” Oscar nominations for lead actors in foreign language performances have been known to happen, but lately they occur much less often than they do in the Best Actress race. Nonetheless, Neon and Moura are probably looking to emulate Sony Pictures Classics’ playbook on “Pain and Glory,” who managed to leverage Antonio Banderas’s Best Actor win at Cannes into first Oscar nomination. Like Michael B. Jordan, he is not a lock, but he should be safe for now. Neon’s work will be all about raising the Oscar prospects of the film in general and keeping Wagner Moura at the center of the campaign.
Finally, we have Joel Edgerton’s celebrated turn in “Train Dreams.” Like Jordan, Edgerton is probably overdue for some kind of recognition at the Oscars. His previous films may not have registered with the Academy in the same way as Micheal B. Jordan’s, but he’s been part of celebrated films for a long time and has seen more than a couple of his co-stars wake up to nominations on Oscar morning – “Animal Kingdom,” “Warrior,” “Zero Dark Thirty,” “The Great Gatsby,” and “Loving” to name a few. However, his bid may already have a few setbacks, for instance champions of the work continue to cite the quiet, nuanced performance of Edgerton’s – which could possibly be overshadowed by a few of the loud, in-your-face performances set to premiere in the fall. But that kind of internalized work doesn’t necessarily mean the Academy won’t come knocking, just look at Bill Nighy’s breakthrough nod for “Living.” That nod for Nighy again proves that a properly promoted performance is just as important as the performance itself – and Sony Pictures Classics knows how to setup a prolonged campaign after having picked up that title at Sundance, which leads to the bigger issue for Edgerton. With Netlifx spearheading the rollout for “Train Dreams,” there is a serious threat of internal competition with other more marquee names possibly commanding the attention of the streaming-giant. This kind of performance and film requires a lot of tender, love and care from its campaigner – can they count on Netflix to prioritize them? On the plus side, filmmakers Bentley & Kwedar were able to help Colman Domingo receive rare consecutive nominations for lead actor when he was shortlisted for his performance in “Sing Sing.” So, voters may have a growing respect for the duo’s ability to coax memorable performances from their collaborators.
These three contenders will be on defense for the rest of the year. The final two spots, however, are wide open, and we’ve had a plethora of memorable turns thus far. Two-time nominee Benicio Del Toro was wonderful headlining “The Phoenician Scheme,” but the film barely made a dent upon release. The esteemed actor has never managed a lead acting bid, and it seems that his chances of doing so for the first time with Wes Anderson’s latest have all be evaporated. Josh O’Connor, who always seems on the cusp of breaking into the Oscars, will likely fall short again despite celebrated work in both “The Mastermind” and “Rebuilding,” the latter of which is still awaiting a distribution deal after its January premiere. Speaking of Sundance, we saw breakthrough performances from both Tonatiuh in “Kiss of the Spider Woman” and Dylan O’Brien in “Twinless,” where O’Brien was able to walk out with a Special Jury Prize. Both titles will be campaigned by Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions, and if they can remain laser-focused one or both of these contenders could gain traction as other performances fade away. O’Brien may shortlist among critics’ groups, while Tonatiuh’s authentic take on Molina may have voters familiar with Willam Hurt’s Oscar-winning interpretation asking, “Who did it better?” The answer may be surprising.
If pressed into solidifying the final two nominations in this category, the answer may fall upon a couple of pillars of the acting community, one-time co-stars, and friends. It also lends the lineup the veteran presence it desperately needs.
In 2001, Ethan Hawke and Denzel Washington shared the screen on “Training Day,” which eventually led to Hawke’s first ever acting nomination and Washington’s second career Oscar win. If the year closed out now, they may find themselves at the same party again. This time even in the same category. Hawke portray’s Lorenz Hart in Richard Linklater’s “Blue Moon,” and his performance was the highlight of the piece for many when it debuted at Berlin earlier this year. Hawke’s last nomination came from a collaboration with Linklater, 2014’s “Boyhood.” Aside from playing a real-life figure, which is absent so far in the category, Hawke will have the brilliant strategy of Sony Pictures Classics at his back. Remember, positioning is just as important as performance, and an argument could be made that no one does it better than Sony Pictures Classics.
Washington headlines another collaboration with Spike Lee, the Cannes premiering “Highest 2 Lowest.” A “spiritual” remake of Kurosawa’s classic, the film was met with enthusiasm from critics and audiences who saw its unveiling at the palace. Much has already been written about Washington’s showy performance, with many citing it as worth the price of admission alone. Last year, the actor found himself in a similar position when he dawned the robe of chief antagonist in Ridley Scott’s sequel “Gladiator II.” It isn’t difficult to imagine that the highly-esteemed Washington was nipping at the heels of a Supporting Actor nomination. On this occasion, “Highest 2 Lowest” could see him get only his second-nomination from a collaboration with Spike Lee, after the duo delivered career-best work on the largely ignored “Malcolm X” in 1992. If the film can make some noise at the U.S. box-office upon release, the reality of this nomination could start to cement itself. He also benefits from being A24’s sole contender in the category – which will inevitably change as we head into the fall and winter.