The next entry into our “IF THE OSCARS WERE TOMORROW” series takes a look at the Actress category, where there is a surprising lack of competition for the time being.
Ground rules to keep in mind. For the best possible accuracy, we’ll be considering not just every film that’s opened theatrically to date, but also every film SCREENED thus far that has both secured distribution and is already dated for release. These screenings may include any of the big festivals from the first half of the year or earlier. Films exclusively screened privately for the industry or press will not count. *
Actress
1 – Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value)
2 – Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You)
3 – Jennifer Lawrence (Die My Love)
4 – June Squibb (Eleanor the Great)
5 – Eva Victor (Sorry, Baby)
There is an uncommonly shallow field of contenders this year, and it’s debatable how much more competition this particular category will see as new films are unveiled in the fall.
Renata Reinsve is a lock for “Sentimental Value,” especially given her overlooked performance in “The Worst Person in the World.” It also helps that she’s playing an actress, which voters look very favorably upon in the lead categories. Then it’s a bit of a wait-and-see game.
Rose Byrne gives one of the most lauded performances of the year in A24’s “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You,” which not only won the hearts of Sundance film critics but also the coveted acting award at the Berlin Film Festival. The nomination is hers to lose at this point. But this uncomfortable, anxiety-inducing sit will not be an easy sell to Academy voters. It doesn’t help that she’ll likely be the campaign’s sole focus, with few other awards prospects to single out. There’s also a humorous, absurdist tone to the piece that may fly over the heads of voters with more traditional taste. She’ll need the lion’s share of accolades from critics’ groups at the end of the year, and at least a nomination at one of the marquee televised award shows.
Of course, Byrne’s biggest setback is that Jennifer Lawrence is campaigning for a very similarly themed film, “Die My Love.” It’s again another uncompromising directorial vision that will likely turn-off as many Oscar voters as it turns on, this one from renowned auteur Lynne Ramsay. Lawrence has been absent at the Oscars for nearly a decade, and this bold, bravura turn might be just the ticket to picking up her fifth career nomination. Like “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You,” she’ll mostly be by herself on the circuit – the primary focus of MUBI’s campaign. MUBI finally broke through last year with “The Substance,” but “Die My Love” is unlikely to be the same kind of box-office champ. Can the distributor really miss out on all major nominations after the success it had last year? Of course, to Lawrence’s advantage, she is a previous nominee (let alone winner) which could really help her edge out Rose Byrne if voters only have room for one polarizing take on motherhood.
The final two spots are wide open. A veteran should place, and that favors the lovable June Squibb in “Eleanor the Great.” She would likely have been a more formidable contender a few years back had a more prominent company handled the release of sleeper-hit “Thelma.” This time Squibb will be backed by Sony Pictures Classics, who knows just the right levers to pull with Oscar voters. She may very well become the oldest Best Actress nominee ever, if the nomination comes to fruition – extra incentive to voters! It also helps that “Eleanor the Great” is Scarlett Johansson’s directorial debut. Actors tend to seek out films made by one of their peers, and especially around SAG voting time this could really break in Squibb’s favor – remember when Viggo Mortensen sneaked into Best Actor in 2016 for headlining Matt Ross’s directorial effort “Captain Fantastic”?
Newcomer Eva Victor should have a comfortable hold over the final spot in the category. She not only stars in A24’s “Sorry Baby” but was also responsible for writing and directing the film. Critics and audiences fell in love with the film and the filmmaker when it bowed at Sundance, and heralded the arrival of a major voice in American independent cinema. In the year’s shallow field, she’ll have a shot of holding on to this spot, especially if critics line up behind her. However, voters may prefer to reward the film elsewhere. One of her advantages is that she’ll have the Pastel brand behind her this awards season, a company that also played a prominent role in getting Paul Mescal his first acting nomination for “Aftersun” back in 2022.