We’ve finally reached the end of our series “IF THE OSCARS WERE TOMORROW” and can unveil the films we believe would earn mentions for Best Picture.
Ground rules to keep in mind. For the best possible accuracy, we’ll be considering not just every film that’s opened theatrically to date, but also every film SCREENED thus far that has both secured distribution and is already dated for release. These screenings may include any of the big festivals from the first half of the year or earlier. Films exclusively screened privately for the industry or press will not count. *
Best Picture
1 – Sinners (Warner Bros.)
2 – Sentimental Value (Neon)
3 – It Was Just An Accident (Neon)
4 – The Life of Chuck (Neon)
5 – Nouvelle Vague (Netflix)
6 – Black Bag (Focus Features)
7 – Sorry, Baby (A24)
8 – F1 (Apple/Warner Bros.)
9 – The Secret Agent (Neon)
10 – Train Dreams (Netflix)
We have three locks in this category, wherein something incredibly disastrous would have to occur to derail their position among the top 10 films listed for Best Picture. First, we have “Sinners,” the domestic box-office behemoth that was also artfully crafted and soulfully rendered by Ryan Coogler (who helped make history when “Black Panther” – another box-office giant – secured the first nomination ever for a superhero film in this category). Then, we have Neon’s 1-2 punch from Cannes, the eventual Palme D’Or winner (“It Was Just An Accident”) and what was the presumed Palme front-runner once upon a time (“Sentimental Value”).
Tradition suggests that another Neon title, “The Life of Chuck,” would at least squeeze in after it snuck away with the People’s Choice Award at last year’s Toronto International Film Festival (even besting Neon’s eventual Best Picture winner, “Anora”).
The elegant black-and-white French New Wave homage, “Nouvelle Vague,” from veteran Richard Linklater should easily find itself among the nominees. Critics weren’t over the moon with the film following its Cannes premiere, but nonetheless this is the sort of film about moviemaking which reinforces the myth of “cinema” that Oscar voters tend to eat up. Having Netflix in its corner probably doesn’t hurt either.
A movie that critics absolutely adored from the first half of the year was Steven Soderbergh’s “Black Bag.” But despite its universal acclaim, the film failed to capture any momentum with mainstream audiences and fizzled out very quickly at the U.S. box-office. Its failure-to-launch prompted a lot of internal discussion on how the film business has changed. However, it’s the kind suave, intelligent adult-film made at a modest budget that pillars of the industry are seemingly always complaining cannot exist within the ecosystem anymore. I would expect for the film to be rescued from obscurity and championed by the Academy based on the passionate support of those two groups (critics & old-school Hollywood aficionados). Focus Features also knows how to run a campaign. Now, if this will hold true by the end of the year, when every film has been seen, is another matter altogether.
Speaking of critics’ darlings, another film to likely find itself in Best Picture due in large part to its rapturous response from critics is A24’s “Sorry Baby.” It’s the debut film from writer/director Eva Victor, but A24 knows how to play this hand exceptionally well – they landed a Best Picture nomination for Celine Song’s debut “Past Lives” using the same playbook. Victor makes perfect sense as the “out-of-nowhere” filmmaker that the industry tends to discover and fall in love with every awards circuit. In addition, with their current standing in the industry at large, it just doesn’t make sense to omit A24 from a Best Picture 10 list. This nomination could actually happen at year’s end, if A24 committed to putting all their weight behind it (spoiler, they won’t). It also never hurts to have the Oscar winning Barry Jenkins as an ambassador for the film!
On the other side of the spectrum, Hollywood is going to want some big-studio fare in the lineup (aside from Coogler’s breakout hit). The most likely candidate would be Apple’s F1, which partnered with Warner Bros for its theatrical release. It’s the kind of muscular, popcorn flick that typically draws a certain crop of voters (masculine, ahem). Its domestic box-office is respectable, but what could potentially seal the deal for a Best Picture nod is the incredible haul it shored up internationally (upwards of $400 million). Brad Pitt and the folks at Plan B are no strangers to Best Picture recognition. Expect Apple to execute an Oscar campaign which mirrors director Joseph Kosinski’s previous Oscar nominated global sensation “Top Gun: Maverick.” Will it pay off?
With only two spots left and the field thinning out, the safest choice is probably a nomination for Brazil’s “The Secret Agent” after securing multiple wins at Cannes – likely a compensation for having just missed out on the biggest prize, the Palme D’Or. It would prove a tremendous achievement for Brazil, which is coming off of a historic (and surprising) Best Picture nomination for “I’m Still Here.” Of the titles mentioned thus far, outside of the “locks” this is the one that may have the legs to go all the way to securing an eventual nod in this category. There’s no escaping the fact that Brazil is certainly having a “moment” in world cinema right now. The ONLY red flag on this campaign is that (lo and behold) Neon will be behind the wheel of this film as well. That would be FOUR films in Best Picture for the company that walked away with the prize last year. If Neon’s enormous victory lap at Cannes (where they secured U.S. rights to nearly all the big winners) is at all prophetic, then we may well be in store for the kind of nomination coup from a mini-major heretofore not witness since the the Golden Age (Dark Age?) of Miramax.
The final spot should probably go to the period drama “Train Dreams,” which was warmly greeted at Sundance. It would be Netflix’s second film in the race – but they’ve been able to double-up nominees in Best Picture several times before. Its inclusion would also add another adapted screenplay in the mix, which we’re surprisingly short on up to this point. Finally, it would be a serendipitous storybook ending to see Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar walk away with the Best Picture nomination that just slipped through their fingers last year when “Sing Sing” was omitted – but then again Oscar town notoriously takes a controversial approach to its IOUs.
The only real outlier as of this writing is what to make of Warner Bros/New Line’s late breaking sleeper-hit “Weapons.” It’s turned on mainstream audiences and critics alike, and is so far buoyed by a strong box-office rollout. However, even with “horror” on the lips of every industry professional, is it really wise to think “Weapons” could outgun Academy genre bias, especially when Ryan Coogler’s genre-shifting “Sinners” is a sure-fire nominee from the same studio? Campaigning against calcified Academy-bias is a full-time endeavor for any studio, with minimal odds of cracking Best Picture. Often, it’s the kind of thing that needs not only the dedicated support of one company but also the impassioned grassroots boosts of several other factions – “The Substance” would require every ounce of MUBI’s attention, the pedigree of Working Title’s Bevan & Fellner, the nostalgia for Demi Moore, artistic allusions to “The Picture of Dorian Gray,” critics’ analysis of horror conventions, audience enthusiasm, Cannes’ official selection, the championing of a distinct female director’s perspective and of course a headline worthy box-office count. Right now, “Weapons” still has an intimidating amount of road to travel before being taken seriously. But, if the film’s financial success starts to crawl past $150 million, a sizable amount of ground will be covered.