Next on our “IF THE OSCARS WERE TOMORROW” series, we’re forecasting which Original Screenplays are in line for a nomination and which may have to fight to keep from fading away.
Ground rules to keep in mind. For the best possible accuracy, we’ll be considering not just every film that’s opened theatrically to date, but also every film SCREENED thus far that has both secured distribution and is already dated for release. These screenings may include any of the big festivals from the first half of the year or earlier. Films exclusively screened privately for the industry or press will not count. *
Original Screenplay
1 – Sentimental Value (Neon)
2 – It Was Just An Accident (Neon)
3 – Sorry, Baby (A24)
4 – Black Bag (Focus Features)
5 – The Secret Agent (Neon)
This is another busy category so far this year. “Sentimental Value” is locked in after its debut at Cannes, especially given Trier’s surprise nod for “The Worst Person in the World” back in 2021. If the Palme D’Or streak is going to stay alive within the Academy Awards (whose international voting bloc grows each year), I see no reason to doubt a nomination for “It Was Just An Accident” by Jafar Panahi. I wouldn’t ordinarily classify the brilliant Panahi’s work as typical Oscar fodder, but let’s assume the Palme D’Or trumps all. Again, it’s Panahi’s nomination to lose.
It makes sense for the debut of writer-director Eva Victor to find itself among the lineup. “Sorry Baby” is the type of sensitive, observant and idiosyncratic storytelling that announces the arrival of a major new talent. Members of the writing branch love to nominate this type of film in part because they really respond to a campaign that prioritizes the storyteller’s unique voice – and A24 is expert on delivering that message to voters. Nonetheless, the film remains such an intimate and delicate piece that A24 does not have the luxury of putting it on the back burner. They must campaign with passion and dedication, or it will get swept up by the heftier titles. It is not a “lock” by any means, but they are certainly on defense. It’s up to another film to snap up their spot – barring any fumbles from the distributor.
The most critically lauded wide-release of the year belongs to Focus Features’ “Black Bag.” This romance-infused espionage thriller is traditionally catnip to members of the writing branch – sharp plot lines, complex characters, darting dialogue and wit. It’s fun and thought-provoking in equal measure, and that type of project where story and performances are at the heart of the film’s success. Had the film premiered at Venice to the same rapturous response, the situation may be completely different. However, the fact that the film flopped at the box-office so early on in the year makes this a tough nomination to land. It helps that the legendary screenwriter David Koepp has yet to be nominated for an Oscar – and this most recent brilliant example of a dying-breed of movie may finally find a soft spot among members of the writers branch. Critics’ groups will need to go to bat in a big way for the film if it hopes to hold on to its spot.
Undoubtedly, by now some will be noting the absence of “Sinners” so far in our discussion. Unfortunately, despite rich Oscar hopes for the film in general, this may be the one category where the film has a weak spot. This branch has demonstrated a willingness to invite genre films into the fold before, just look at last year’s nomination for the dialogue-light “The Substance.” However, while writers may also really enjoy its bold mixing of genre tropes, there may be a significant faction of voters who feel the shifts in tone or genre are not handled as organically as possible. Writers have also been hesitant to nominate films they feel rely too heavily on spectacle in this category, especially those with a large studio footprint. I definitely believe “Sinners” will place among the screenplay shortlists on the circuit, likely even garnering a mention from the Writers Guild Award. But it’s the sort of piece that should never even feel “safe” in the category, let alone “locked.” Despite whatever momentum the script can build on the road to the Oscars, choosey writers may elect to shop elsewhere.
If the “Sinners” snub does occur, where could voters turn to fill out that last slot? Celine Song scored a bona-fide box-office hit for A24’s “Materialists.” She’s a previous nominee in the category and A24 has a lot of good favor among the writers branch. However, her sophomore feature pales in comparison to the artistic achievement of her Oscar nominated debut, “Past Lives.” Writers who fell head-over-heels for that film may find it too soon to consider Song for a second writing nomination. Then we have the late-breaking “Weapons” – which has been the talk of Hollywood for a few weeks now. This is exactly the kind of taut, expertly structured genre script that writers could easily prefer over the blockbuster-friendly “Sinners.” But unlike Coogler, Zach Cregger is mostly a new name to voters who operate outside the horror niche, and may even be perceived as strictly a horror specialist – a label that won’t invite much respect from certain pretentious writers. However, if the films continues to build momentum, don’t be surprised if Cregger at the very least gets “Weapons” nominated alongside “Sinners” at the Writers Guild Award.
A wider scope of the race probably points to the last slot falling in favor of Brazil’s “The Secret Agent.” This Brazilian epic is not only bursting with references to 70s cinema but is also infused with genre tropes itself. However, the film’s discerning, nuanced approach to stirring in these genre conventions into the larger story may appeal to some of the more high-brow writers of the branch. At the very least, writers won’t dismiss the title as a mere cash-grab, since the project was conceived outside the Hollywood system, and may feel the political subtext of the piece is much more urgent than anything “Sinners” or “Weapons” alludes to.