Next on our “IF THE OSCARS WERE TOMORROW” series, we take stock of who’s ahead in Supporting Actor. Here’s who we think would get a nomination if the race ended tomorrow.
Ground rules to keep in mind. For the best possible accuracy, we’ll be considering not just every film that’s opened theatrically to date, but also every film SCREENED thus far that has both secured distribution and is already dated for release. These screenings may include any of the big festivals from the first half of the year or earlier. Films exclusively screened privately for the industry or press will not count. *
Supporting Actor
1 – Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)
2 – Delroy Lindo (Sinners)
3 – Diego Luna (Kiss of the Spider Woman)
4 – Mark Hamill (The Life of Chuck)
5 – Andrew Scott (Blue Moon)
Supporting Actor still feels wide open at this point. The one lock in the category is Stellan Skarsgård, who hopes to pick up his first career nomination for his performance in “Sentimental Value.” He has both the project and career to potentially transform this shoe-in nod into his first Oscar, especially if the competition doesn’t pick up.
Delroy Lindo, another veteran looking to secure his first career nomination, will certainly benefit from “Sinners” placing up and down the ballot. It helps that voters may still remember that Lindo was recently overlooked for his performance in Spike Lee’s “Da 5 Bloods” in a crowded Best Actor category in 2020. Critics have spotlighted Lindo for his collaborations with Spike Lee, but Academy voters may also be familiar with his patented scene-stealing supporting work in films like “Get Shorty” and “The Cider House Rules.” Although his screen time in “Sinners” is limited, Lindo once again showcases that uncanny ability with his performance. It’s by no means a done deal, but if Lindo can once again rally the support of the Screen Actors Guild and add that to the tremendous favor this film will carry with the Academy, he may finally get that elusive nomination.
The best candidate for the third spot is likely Diego Luna for “Kiss of the Spider Woman.” All the principals of the cast were applauded out of Sundance, and it seems that each have their ardent champions. Like Lopez, Diego Luna has spent years in the industry without having had the right opportunity to celebrate his accomplishments. Voters will recognize him from his work in films like “Y Tu Mama Tambien,” “Frida,” and “Milk” to name a few. More recently, he’s been in the spotlight for his work in “Andor,” for which he interestingly fell short of an Emmy nomination again. “Kiss of the Spider Woman” has Luna stepping into his dancing shoes alongside the legendary dancer Jennifer Lopez, and represents the kind of risky choice that compels voters to take note. More importantly, Luna is an incredible ambassador of the message behind the film. He can eloquently and effortlessly express the renewed urgency of the piece, a powerful tool for any campaign. And like Lopez, there is a certain symbiosis occurring in the film between actor and character which really highlights his artistic spirit. The competitiveness of the field will dictate what kind of legs this campaign will have, but voters may very well find this to be the opportune time to give him his flowers.
The most compelling choice for the fourth slot is probably Mark Hamill, who could capitalize on the film’s success at Toronto last year and his storied career in the industry. “The Life of Chuck” operates more as an ensemble piece, but Hamill’s mysterious character benefits from occupying the thematic climax of the film. His bid would require a sizable amount of goodwill from his peers, but if the film can undergo a resurgence among a passionate band of voters at the right time, a campaign could prove fruitful.
Considering that the lineup is already suspiciously low on previous nominees, perhaps the wisest assumption we can make is that there would be room for an actor portraying a real-life figure. If so, it could be Andrew Scott who benefits from playing composer Richard Rogers in Linklater’s “Blue Moon.” Scott was championed by critics for his performance in “All of Us Strangers” in 2023, and even earned his first career Golden Globe nomination. He was later inexplicably overlooked by BAFTA despite the film scoring multiple nominations. It helps that not only is Scott playing a real person, but that his screen partner Ethan Hawke could figure into the Best Actor race. After its buzzy Berlin premiere and even an award for Scott’s supporting performance, the anticipation around “Blue Moon” has tapered off. However, with the gifted Sony Pictures Classics campaigning the film, Scott will always have a fighting chance at making the final five this year.