Next on our series “IF THE OSCARS WERE TOMORROW,” we will be shortlisting the contenders we can see getting a nomination for Supporting Actress in a very competitive year.
Ground rules to keep in mind. For the best possible accuracy, we’ll be considering not just every film that’s opened theatrically to date, but also every film SCREENED thus far that has both secured distribution and is already dated for release. These screenings may include any of the big festivals from the first half of the year or earlier. Films exclusively screened privately for the industry or press will not count. *
Supporting Actress
1 – Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value)
2 – Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners)
3 – Jennifer Lopez (Kiss of the Spider Woman)
4 – Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value)
5 – Amy Madigan (Weapons)
This is the second of the more competitive acting races this year – the first being Best Actor. However, of the four performance categories, this is the only one that could finish tomorrow and still yield a set of very likely nominees. Unlike the others, this category feels complete, checking each box for what the actors’ branch typically likes to nominate.
The best place to start is with the same pair of films which are currently neck and neck in the Best Picture race – Warner Bros’ “Sinners” and Neon’s “Sentimental Value.” Ironically, both films also feature a pair of standout supporting turns from the women in their casts. First, there’s Elle Fanning for “Sentimental Value,” who beyond being a scene-stealer in the film also boasts a celebrated, eclectic filmography, including beloved turns in both big-studio projects like “Super 8” and auteur pieces such as “20th Century Women.” She most recently co-starred in the Oscar-nominated Bob Dylan study “A Complete Unknown,” and a strong argument could be made that she came extremely close to securing this same nomination last year. This year alone, she’ll not only share the screen on “Sentimental Value” but co-headline the anticipated theatrical return of the “Predator” series. She’s locked in for at least a nomination, and not even a campaign hiccup could spoil her chances.
Her co-star Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas received great ink as well for her role as the sister to Renate Reinsve’s Nora. It did not spark the same sort of immediate passion as her three co-stars, but was nonetheless cited as a critical component of the ensemble. Lilleaas is a relatively new actor on screen and will have to battle a general anonymity among voters. It helps that actors will definitely be prioritizing her film throughout the race, but the other major factor working against her is internal competition. Last year, Elle Fanning lost out on a nod when her co-star Monica Barbaro snuck in for her portrayal of Joan Baez. Will voters consider sidelining Lilleaas out of fear that Fanning could potentially go empty-handed again? Possibly. Remember, the most lucrative position on a voter’s ballot is the first, and you can only put one name at the top of the list.
Meanwhile, Wunmi Mosaku gives the kind of breakout performance in “Sinners” that typically gains steam with Academy voters. Unfortunately, genre films don’t have the same track record with voters as say biopics, but there are certainly exceptions. It helps that Mosaku plays such a crucial role in the emotional arc of the story, and is showcased in the poignant, memorable finale. It also doesn’t hurt that she’s already a more familiar face among the UK voting bloc, having earned a couple of BAFTA nominations including one for her lead performance in another genre tale “His House.” “Sinners” was not the same success overseas as it was in the U.S., but if BAFTA singles out Mosaku despite that, then consider her a real threat. As it stands now with “Sinners” firing on all cylinders, she’d be a shoe-in for a nomination. Any other contenders debuting in the fall will have to pry the nomination out of her hands.
A case can be made that Mosaku may be joined by her co-star Hailee Steinfeld in the category. Steinfeld is a previous nominee for Supporting Actress for her breakout role in the Coen brothers’ remake “True Grit” – where she was recognized alongside her co-star Jeff Bridges. She garnered mentions from the Screen Actors Guild and BAFTA for that same film, and would later get her first Globe nomination for the coming-of-age tale “The Edge of Seventeen.” “Sinners” is certainly a change of pace for Steinfeld which voters will appreciate, but any hope of a nomination will come from her ability to ride a wave of enthusiasm for the film from the actors’ branch. To that end, what may really make or break her chances in this race is whether or not her previous accolades will be considered a detriment or a benefit. Unfortunately, a lot of that will depend on the rest of her competition.
Despite starring in Best Picture favorites, however, it feels misguided to believe that either Lilleaas or Steinfeld would rank higher than the infamously overlooked Jennifer Lopez in this category. Lopez is coming off the Sundance premiere of “Kiss of the Spider Woman,” where she was universally praised as the standout. At this point, the Academy must be painfully aware of the bevy of criticism leveraged against them for routinely snubbing her – most notably for the treasured biopic “Selena” and the critics’ darling “Hustlers.” It helps that Lopez is, ironically enough, finally getting the rare opportunity to sing and dance in a big-screen musical, which really sets the stage for her to shine. Not to mention, the origins of the project have already resonated with Tony voters and even Academy members – who nominated the 1985 film for Best Picture and handed William Hurt the Best Actor Oscar for his performance. If you consider that her involvement in the film surrounds her with the legacy of Chita Rivera and the know-how of Bill Condon (a previous Oscar winner), then the path for this nomination really starts to solidify. Especially considering how Condon crafted the film with a kind of old-school reverence for classic Hollywood musicals which voters will admire, this nomination should be imminent. Her campaign is officially on defense, and it’s her spot to lose.
After Lopez, it would make sense to consider Lilleaas and Steinfeld for the fourth and fifth spot. However, historically we know that it is extraordinarily unlikely to see two pairs of actors from the same movie make the shortlist. That’s enough to knock one of the two out. But even then, when you consider that most duo nominees from the same film have to first strike at the Screen Actors Guild, it becomes clear how tricky it will be to make these nominations a reality – a similar fate was visited upon Selena Gomez last year when she couldn’t join Zoe Saldaña in this same category. If one has an edge over the other, it would likely be Lilleaas who won’t suffer through the same kind of genre-bias as Steinfeld.
Steinfeld’s secret weapon is really that if the Oscars were tomorrow she would make sense in the final spot because she is a veteran of the Oscars – something the other four women above her are not. At the same time, the prospect of Steinfeld securing two nominations at such a young age are uncertain. If her only hold on the final slot is her veteran status, it is worth mentioning that Glenn Close delivered another lauded performance in “The Summer Book.” That release will probably be too small to move the needle for the eight-time nominee, but she will have a splashy debut at TIFF with a new chapter in the “Knives Out” series.
Finally, with its recent success, our search for a veteran in this category brings us to the spine-chilling performance from former nominee Amy Madigan in “Weapons.” The work is already collecting passionate support from critics, online outlets and audiences. Despite the film’s success, it is by no means what the Academy traditionally spotlights, and unfortunately Warner Bros. will likely be prioritizing other titles this awards season. But if the Oscars were tomorrow, she likely has the more standout part and the longer waiting period between nominations to outmuscle Steinfeld for that fifth spot. But her position remains vulnerable, and it’s unclear whether the fanfare for the performance will survive past the fall. Although a nomination is not impossible, she’ll need critics’ groups to keep her in the conversation and pick up the slack from the studio.