In anticipation of a barrage of new Oscar contenders with the arrival of the fall festivals, Frames and Flicker will be running a series titled “IF THE OSCARS WERE TOMORROW.” It’s a fun exercise meant to take a wide perspective of the Oscar race as it stands now, in the unnerving quiet between the end of summer and the imminent blast of the starting pistol on Labor Day Weekend, with a little more than half the year in our rearview mirror.
This won’t be an article for WHO DESERVES to be among the nominees – we’ll reserve that thought piece for a later date. Instead, we’ll be suggesting who would be nominated using our own instincts and a studied understanding for how the Academy body typically votes. We’ve “affectionately” termed this oft-elusive (yet nonetheless ingrained and perceptible) standard of practice within the Oscars as “Academy Logic.”
Some ground rules. For the best possible accuracy, we’ll be considering not just every film that’s opened theatrically to date, but also every film SCREENED thus far that has both secured distribution and is already dated for release. These screenings may include any of the big festivals from the first half of the year or earlier. Films exclusively screened privately for the industry or press will not count.
So, let’s see how the field fares if votes were tallied and nominations were due tomorrow morning. We’ll be breaking it down category-by-category.
Visual Effects
1 – Superman (Warner Bros.)
2 – The Fantastic Four: First Steps (Disney)
3 – How to Train Your Dragon (Universal)
4 – The Legend of Ochi (A24)
5 – Mickey 17 (Warner Bros.)
Arguably, visual effects is the category that should feel most complete at this point of the Oscar race, due to the fact that it usually favors the extensive visual effects work that’s become synonymous with the summer blockbuster. Thus in theory, a large swath of the contenders for this race have already been screened, financially celebrated and singled out for their VFX. It’s been an extremely lucrative summer for Hollywood, so let’s see if we can weed out who’s leading the field.
After its glorious return to the big screen, it’s difficult to imagine voters won’t want to welcome back “Superman” into the visual effects category – it is after all one of the most storied and beloved of cinematic properties. If financial success, critics’ admiration, audience excitement and legacy weren’t enough to seal the deal, it helps that director James Gunn and VFX supervisor Stephane Ceretti have already collaborated on projects singled out in this same category – specifically from the “Guardians of the Galaxy” series.
Right on the heels of DC’s summer hit, we have Marvel’s own superhero entry “The Fantastic Four: First Steps.” Ironically, the last time Marvel was invited back to the visual effects category, in fact any type of Oscar nomination, it was for James Gunn’s swan song for the company, “Guardians of the Galaxy, vol. 3.” That one year Marvel was left off the visual effects list may not seem like a lot, but I’m sure it hurt (financially and otherwise) for a company that had been a staple in that race for more than a decade. This year they are in good shape to right the course. It’s not great that director Matt Shakman is best known for his work on television, but on the other hand the film recruited Oscar winning Scott Stokdyk to steer its visual effects. It’s Stokdyk’s big return to the superhero genre after having received nominations for the effects on Sam Raimi’s “Spider-Man” films. He, along with the films fun retro-futuristic setting, could be just what the doctor ordered to get Marvel back into Oscar’s good graces.
Some would wager that the international box-office riches of both Apple’s “F1” and Paramount’s “Mission Impossible – The Final Reckoning” probably make each favorites in this race. “Mission Impossible – The Final Reckoning” is riding especially high after the Tom Cruise tentpole was finally able to breakthrough at the Oscars in 2023 – scoring nominations for both its sound design and visual effects. It’s difficult to feel confident that this final chapter in the legacy project will have enough momentum from that recent success to repeat, especially considering critics were much kinder to “Dead Reckoning.” Ryan Tudhope, who spearheaded the visual effects for “F1,” is also hoping to recreate the success he had with another Tom Cruise summer vehicle, “Top Gun: Maverick.” He earned his first career nomination for his work on the Joseph Kosinski-directed sequel in 2022. However, voters may find the landlocked “F1” less worth spotlighting than the sky-bound “Maverick.”
This may be an appropriate area to instead nominate another high-flying adventure, Dreamworks’ “How to Train Your Dragon.” The original animated film scored two Oscar nominations, and its sequels spawned a few more nods – so clearly voters watch and enjoy the legacy property. Expect Universal to heavily campaign this live-action remake for VFX in order to try to keep in step with rival Disney’s own live-action Oscar nominees, “The Jungle Book” and “The Lion King.” Although the project’s fantastical dragons may not compare to the photorealistic rendering of Disney’s animals, the film at least has Christian Manz leading the team, who was previously nominated for his work on “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 1.”
Disney will have their own live-action film in the hunt – “Lilo & Stitch.” Ironically, both live-action contenders from Disney and Dreamworks originate from director Chris Sanders, who first helmed their animated counterparts. Critics were sour on the film, but audiences devoured it. As of now, it is the only film this year to have internationally crossed the mythological billion-dollar mark. Like Dreamworks’ live-action remake, directorial duties on “Lilo & Stitch” went to a filmmaker with ties to animation and a previous Oscar nominee in that category. The visual effects were overseen by two-time nominee Craig Hammock, who was most recently nominated for “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever.” The biggest setback for the project, however, is that aside from the CG character of Stitch the visual effects work may be less pronounced. Members of the branch may opt for another project with a more thorough use of effects.
It’s important to remember that in the past this branch hasn’t been afraid to make unorthodox choices – for example, “Kubo and the Two Strings,” “Christopher Robin,” “Love and Monsters,” “Free Guy,” and “Godzilla Minus One.” It’s probably sound advice to factor in some unpredictability in the category. In that spirit, traditionally the category should share some overlap with production design. Since superhero fare rarely makes an appearance in the production designers branch, it’s not out of the question to see a surprise mention for “The Legend of Ochi” in visual effects. It would be a great candidate to bridge both those categories, and would be the kind of surprise we see every now and then from the branch.
Speaking of surprises, the film most would predict here at this point is surely Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners.” And there is certainly space for its inclusion if the Oscars were tomorrow. But our gut says its visual effects work is too subtle, and that “Sinners” is the kind of Best Picture front-runner that would probably draw the short straw in this category on Oscar morning – think “Dunkirk” and “The Shape of Water” in 2017, two hugely nominated films who were somehow passed over for visual effects. With one spot up for grabs, and not completely convinced that the summer vehicles of either Pitt or Cruise have enough staying power, we’d predict another Warner Bros. release picking it up, albeit a flop – “Mickey 17.” It would be yet another unconventional choice for the branch, but at least the film boasts extensive effects work – not only in creating a pair of twins, but also in its creature design, simulations and created environments.