With the results from the Gotham Film Awards now behind us, it’s time to turn toward a fresh slate of possibilities with our Independent Spirit Awards nominations predictions for 2025. The IFP Independent Spirit Awards are another organization dedicated to championing independent film in the industry. However, several buzzy titles like One Battle After Another, Begonia, and Sinners won’t qualify this time around, which opens the door for new contenders to emerge. The Spirit Awards have stricter eligibility requirements—including budget thresholds and rules about country of origin, which allow only productions with some form of U.S. financial or production support to qualify. This always adds an“unexpected” nature to their batch of nominees. Because many outstanding indie films are overlooked by the broader awards-season press, we should anticipate more than a few welcome surprises. And with the organization occasionally recognizing films before their public U.S. release, predicting the lineup becomes even more challenging. Nonetheless, here are a few films we are expecting to go over well with Independent Spirit Awards.
Our first bold prediction is that the Spirit Awards will lean toward overlooking Oscars favorite Hamnet. Budget numbers aren’t officially published, but it could possibly be a bit higher than the threshold. If not, we still feel kind of iffy about the group potentially nominating producers Sam Mendes and Steven Spielberg for Independent Spirit Awards with a Best Feature nomination! We also believe Sentimental Value won’t qualify because we can’t find any evidence of U.S. involvement in its making. But these are wild guesses. Our last wild guess had Marty Supreme dominating the Gotham Film Awards and that hunch didn’t go over well. So we’ll see if we’re on firmer ground with these two omissions.
As always, you can catch up with our updated Oscar predictions here.
Best International Film
It Was Just an Accident
My Father’s Shadow
No Other Choice
Sirat
Sound of Falling
Spoiler – Sentimental Value
Other Possibilities – Pillion • The President’s Cake • The Secret Agent • The Things You Kill • The Voice of Hind Rajab
Best Film Editing
Dead Man’s Wire
If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Lurker
The Testament of Ann Lee
Warfare
Spoiler – Highest 2 Lowest
Other Possibilities – The Chronology of Water • Pavements • The Plague • Sorry, Baby
Best Cinematography
Die My Love
The Left-Handed Girl
Tatami
The Testament of Ann Lee
Train Dreams
Spoiler – Hedda
Other Possibilities – Kiss of The Spider Woman • Mad Bills to Pay • The Plague • Sorry, Baby
Best First Screenplay
Robert Kaplow, Blue Moon
Andrew DeYoung, Friendship
River Gallo, Ponyboi
Martyna Majok, Preparation for the Next Life
Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby
Spoiler – A Nice Indian Boy
Other Possibilities – Bob Trevino Likes It • The Chronology of Water • Plainclothes • The Threesome • Together • We Strangers
Best Screenplay
Mary Bronstein, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
JT Mollner, The Long Walk
Kelly Reichardt, The Mastermind
Derek Cianfrance & Kirt Gunn, Roofman
James Sweeney, Twinless
Spoiler – A Little Prayer
Other Possibilities – Dreams • Is This Thing On? • The Luckiest Man in America
Best Supporting Performance
Saleh Bakri, All That’s Left of You
John Leguizamo, Bob Trevino Likes It
Nina Hoss, Hedda
Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman
David Jonsson, The Long Walk
DeWanda Wise, Love, Brooklyn
Archie Madekwe, Lurker
Russell Tovey, Plainclothes
Sheryl Lee Ralph, Ricky
Kirsten Dunst, Roofman
Spoiler – SZA, One of Them Days
Other Possibilities – Sissy Spacek, Die My Love • Paul Rudd, Friendship • Diego Luna, Kiss of the Spider Woman • Kenny Rasmussen, The Plague • Nick Offerman, Sovereign • James Sweeney, Twinless • Maria Dizzia, We Strangers
Best Lead Performance
Kathleen Chalfant, Familiar Touch
Tessa Thompson, Hedda
Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Tonatiuh, Kiss of the Spider Woman
André Holland, Love, Brooklyn
Josh O’Connor, The Mastermind
Lucy Liu, Rosemead
Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee
Dylan O’Brien, Twinless
Frank Dillane, Urchin
Spoiler – Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams
Other Possibilities – Imogen Poots, The Chronology of Water • Jennifer Lawrence, Die My Love • June Squibb, Eleanor the Great • Will Arnett, Is This Thing On? • David Strathairn, A Little Prayer • Paul Walter Hauser, The Luckiest Man in America • Théodore Pellerin, Lurker • John Magaro, Omaha • Ben Whishaw, Peter Hujar’s Day • Stephan James, Ricky • Kirby Howell-Baptiste, We Strangers
Robert Altman Award
Atropia
Spoiler – Hedda
Other Possibilities – All That’s Left of You • Eephus • The Long Walk • Roofman • Warfare
Someone To Watch Award
Kate Beecroft, East of Wall
Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby
Sierra Falconer, Sunfish (& Other Stories on Green Lake)
John Cassavetes Award
Drunken Noodles
Eephus
Familiar Touch
Good Boy
Mad Bills to Pay
Spoiler – Sunfish (& Other Stories on Green Lake)
Other Possibilities – The Baltimorons • Blue Sun Palace • East of Wall • So Far All Good
Best First Feature
Lurker
Plainclothes
Preparation for the Next Life
Sorry, Baby
We Strangers
Spoiler – The Plague
Other Possibilities – The Chronology of Water • East of Wall • Omaha • Ricky • Rosemead • Together • Urchin
Best Director
Cherien Dabis, All That’s Left of You
Nia DaCosta, Hedda
Mary Bronstein, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Mona Fastvold, The Testament of Ann Lee
Clint Bentley, Train Dreams
Spoiler – Michel Franco, Dreams
Other Possibilities – Lynne Ramsay, Die My Love • Spike Lee, Highest 2 Lowest • Shih-Ching Tsou, The Left-Handed Girl • Kelly Reichardt, The Mastermind • James Sweeney, Twinless
Best Feature
All That’s Left of You
Dreams
Hedda
If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
The Left-Handed Girl
Spoiler – The Testament of Ann Lee
Other Possibilities – Die My Love • Highest 2 Lowest • The Mastermind • Sorry, Baby • Train Dreams • Twinless
Catch our reaction to the nominees on the next episode of the Academy Anonymous podcast!