The Critics Choice Awards and Their Complicated Role as an Oscar Precursor vs. Prognosticator

The Critics Choice Association will unveil its nominees on Friday, and as always, I find myself approaching the announcement with mixed feelings. For all its visibility, the ceremony has long carried an air of amateurism and a lingering question of who is actually deliberating its awards. Unlike established critical institutions such as the New York Film Critics Circle, the Los Angeles Film Critics Association, or the National Society of Film Critics—groups whose long histories give clear context to what their selections mean in the broader film culture—the Critics Choice lacks a sense of lineage and, with it, a certain credibility. Yet the organization continues to promote itself loudly as a major Oscar precursor, leaning into a narrative that often feels less about championing distinctive work and more about forecasting the Academy’s choices.

That approach has gradually shaped the identity of the Critics Choice itself. Over the years, their nominees have come to mirror Gold Derby’s Oscar predictions so closely that “predicting” the Critics Choice has become less a matter of discerning taste and more a simplified exercise in tracking awards-season odds. While they occasionally stumble into a fringe contender who ultimately secures an Oscar nomination, it’s rarely because the group provided meaningful momentum—artists like Marion Cotillard in Two Days, One Night or Charlotte Rampling in 45 Years were propelled by their careers, festival acclaim, and critical prestige long before Critics Choice caught on. This year’s newly introduced shortlists—curated by a jury, not the membership at large—hint at genuine enthusiasm for certain films within the organization, but whether that can meaningfully influence the final nominations remains to be seen.

You can catch our latest analysis on the Oscar race on the Academy Anonymous podcast on Spotify.

Best Picture

As you can see, there is 100% overlap between both pools. So, it would be very surprising if these were not the nominees, even though Avatar: Fire and Ash may only have days to build up critic enthusiasm or fanfare, and Wicked: For Good stumbled with most critics.

It interesting to note that between the two pools the standing of It Was Just an Accident falls from #6 in the Oscars predictions to #10 in the Critics Choice predictions.

Both pools have Netflix’s Train Dreams floating at #11, the runner-up spot. Other films outside the top include Jay Kelly, The Secret Agent, and No Other Choice which feature in both. Meanwhile, the Critics Choice odds favor Weapons while the Oscars odds favor The Testament of Ann Lee.

Best Director

The Gold Derby Oscars odds are favoring Jafar Panahi while the Critics Choice odds prefer both Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme and Guillermo del Toro for Frankenstein. Not a surprise, since the Critics Choice odds rank both films higher than It Was Just an Accident in Best Picture. It would be inexplicable for the Critics Choice to leave off Panahi, so expect him bump off Guillermo del Toro on the final list of Critics Choice nominees or possibly have this lineup grow to seven contenders.

Best Actress

Overlap between both odds for Buckley, Reinsve, Erivo and Stone. The Oscar odds only slightly favor Amanda Seyfried over Rose Byrne, with Chase Infiniti lingering at #7. So, unsurprisingly on the Critics Choice odds, Amanda Seyfried is the runner-up at #7. Expect the Critics Choice nominees to pool from here with Amanda Seyfried possibly usurping Chase Infiniti, who they may choose to spotlight elsewhere like Young Performer or Breakthrough Performer.

Best Actor

Again, 100% overlap between the two odds. The Critics Choice is allowed to pick a 6th nominee which results in Joel Edgerton getting in. He is also the runner-up on the Gold Derby Oscar pool. So, in theory this should be the list at the Critics Choice Association.

Outside contenders who could pop up include Jesse Plemons for Bugonia, Jeremy Allen White for Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere, George Clooney for Jay Kelly, Dwayne Johnson for The Smashing Machine and Lee Byung-hun for No Other Choice. Critics went nuts for No Other Choice, but a few of these more marquee names should fare better in the televised awards ceremonies. Will the critics expand the list to seven nominees to invite him into the fold (recognizing he’s a potential dark horse) or maybe even include former frontrunners Jeremy Allen White or Dwayne Johnson as a last minute bid to shore up their chances of getting all the eventual Oscar nominees?

Best Supporting Actress

All the selections over lap with the Critics Choice opting for Wunmi Mosaku in their 6th spot. The runner-up for the Oscars predictions odds is Gwyneth Paltrow for Marty Supreme followed by Mosaku. Paltrow also ranks 7th at the Critics Choice. So, look her to possibly leap Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (the second nominee in this category from Sentimental Value), or for the group to expand the list to seven nominees.

Other contenders outside the top ten include Regina Hall, Odessa A’zion, Glenn Close, Jennifer Lopez, and Emily Blunt.

Best Supporting Actor

The race has quickly solidified itself around these six contenders with Adam Sandler ranking last in the Critics Choice odds and coming up 6th in the Oscars predictions odds. Meanwhile both pools agree that Delroy Lindo sits at 7th with his performance in Sinners.

Best Original Screenplay

This list of six should hold up at the Critics Choice, although The Secret Agent is in the runner-up spot in the Oscars pool. But Weapons should close the gap there as the season goes on.

Best Adapted Screenplay

The top five between both odds slightly differ, but the top seven contenders match. The Critics Choice pool has Frankenstein and Train Dreams ahead, while the Oscar odds have No Other Choice. With it being widely celebrated by critics, expect No Other Choice to break into the Critics Choice lineup likely at the expense of Frankenstein.

Best Film Editing

The Critics Choice introduced a juried longest into its below-the-line categories this year. They featured some surprisingly excellent fringe contenders. But will the voting body spotlight some of these underexposed gems or will they prefer their usual typically mission of predicting Oscar contenders?

Expect the favored five from the Oscar predictions odds to secure a spot here. With the additional spot the Critics Choice Association is probably going to side with No Other Choice, the next highest ranked contender in the Gold Derby Oscars pool.

Best Cinematography

The Oscar favorites should be locked in, with the additional spot at the Critics Choice going to Train Dreams which right now holds the runner-up spot in the Gold Derby Oscars odds.

Best Production Design

The Critics Choice couldn’t screen Avatar: Fire and Ash quickly enough (would it even have made a difference?) and so they left it off all their shortlists. But, that opens up an additional spot here with only four Oscar favorites carrying over into Critics Choice nominations. The 5th slot at the Critics Choice Awards should go to Marty Supreme which is the runner-up in the Gold Derby Oscars odds. For sixth it’s a free-for-all since One Battle After Another, The Testament of Ann Lee, Train Dreams and The Phoenician Scheme all failed to get a shortlist mention! That leaves the next highest ranking film on the Gold Derby Oscars predictions pool to be The Fantastic Four: First Steps! It was shortlisted by the Critics Choice jury. Could it surprise here? Maybe. But we’re thinking with this dearth of competition look for Avatar: Fire and Ash to foster enough “write-in” votes to veto the Critics Choice shortlist anyway…

Best Costume Design

The five Oscars frontrunner in Costume qualified in the Critics Choice shortlists. So, the safe bet is for all five to carry over, even if the Critics Choice shortlist demonstrated that overall the group isn’t crazy about The Testament of Ann Lee. The sixth spot should go to Gold Derby runner-up Marty Supreme. If votes give Ann Lee the cold shoulder, look for Kiss of the Spider Woman or Hedda to surprise.

Best Makeup

The Gold Derby Oscars predicted five should hold with the runner-up Weapons rounding out the Critics Choice Awards’ six nominees. Also in the conversation is 28 Years Later.

Best Visual Effects

Avatar: Fire and Ash should get in via the write-in option (even if most critics are still flying blind on the film). The other four favorites that overlap with the Critics Choice shortlist should be safe, although the tide may be turning on the visual effects work in Wicked: For Good. A sixth spot belongs to The Fantastic Four: First Steps which is the runner-up in the Oscar pool and should easily leap frog Frankenstein as the race drags on. If either F1 or Wicked: For Good get bumped out of the Critics Choice nominations in this category look for Predator: Badlands to swoop in.

Best Sound

Can Avatar: Fire and Ash yet again write-in itself to a nomination here? It’s such a heavy favorite for the eventual Oscar nomination that it might just be able to. The sixth spot at the Critics Choice should go to Gold Derby’s Oscar predictions runner-up Frankenstein. If the latest Avatar can’t muscle it’s way in, look for genuine critics darling Sirat to pull of an unlikely upset here over it!

Best Score

Wicked: For Good couldn’t manage a shortlist mention, so that frees up an additional spot. Marty Supreme is in 6th in the Oscars odds for Gold Derby and Bugonia is in 7th. They should both squeeze in here, although a surprise could be lurking with either F1‘s Hans Zimmer or Sirat breaking into the lineup.

Best Casting (Ensemble)

And finally, the Critics Choice has merged their ensemble category (likely meant to mirror the SAG’s nominees) with the Academy Awards’ new casting category. Sentimental Value is suspiciously left off the shortlist which frees up two spots. Marty Supreme should crack the final six at the Critics Choice Awards, it’s the runner-up on Gold Derby’s Oscars pool. And with Weapons also missing the shortlist cut, look for Jay Kelly to sneak in.

Keep track of updates on our Oscar Predictions page to see which films and contenders are surging and struggling.