The winner of the coveted TIFF People’s Choice Award will be announced tomorrow. I say “coveted” because TIFF and the pundit class like to position the recipients of this prize as a bellwether for Academy Awards success. But how true is that, really?
The first People’s Choice Award was handed out in 1978—two years after the festival’s founding—and went to Claudia Weill’s seminal Girlfriends. Since then, the winner has gone on to secure a Best Picture nomination or win at the Oscars 22 times out of 46. If we expand the lens to include any Oscar nomination or win (not just Best Picture), that number rises to 34 out of 46.
In 2000, TIFF began announcing first and second runners-up. That year, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon took the top prize and Billy Elliot came in third. But for much of the early 2000s, only the winner tended to translate to Oscar recognition. Starting around 2012, though, things shifted: both Silver Linings Playbook (winner) and Argo (runner-up) broke through, and since then, it’s become common for most—if not all—of the PCA selections (winner plus finalists) to earn some kind of Oscar nod. Generally, if one doesn’t, it’s because the film was smaller, foreign, or never really in the Oscar conversation. But if a film is in the conversation and lands a spot in the TIFF PCA lineup, recent trends suggest it’s a very likely candidate for recognition of some kind.
Last year was an odd anomaly. The winner, The Life of Chuck, was acquired by Neon and pushed to this year. Joseph and I have speculated on our Academy Anonymous podcast about why Neon moved so aggressively—possibly to clear the path for Anora. Would Chuck have won the Oscar? Probably not. But maybe Neon thought it could rally enough passion (a la CODA in 2021) to at least complicate Anora’s trajectory. Had it competed last year, Chuck might reasonably have landed Best Picture and Best Screenplay nominations (over Nickel Boys and Sing Sing, respectively). Instead, it dropped quietly this summer, and now seems unlikely to garner much awards traction. From the outside, Neon’s strategy looks questionable—especially for the Chuck team.
This year, TIFF added a wrinkle: the inaugural International People’s Choice Award. And honestly, it raises more questions than answers. With two separate awards, we no longer get one definitive audience favorite. If a film wins the International PCA, does that mean it was the true crowd-pleaser, or will pundits just brush it aside and keep focusing only on the “main” TIFF PCA? What happens to the runners-up—second and third place in both lists? Are they genuinely beloved, or are they just filling out slots because now we’ve got two sets of lists to pad? And why did TIFF feel the need to create this second category at all? Was it in response to complaints? A desire to keep the main PCA from going to international films too often? Whatever the motive, the bigger issue is what this does to the award’s significance. The TIFF PCA has long carried weight as an Oscar predictor precisely because it was singular. Now, with two awards, does that predictive power extend to both? Or will the International PCA end up sidelined while only the main prize continues to “matter” for Best Picture buzz? Right now, it feels like a confusing and unnecessary split—and one that risks diluting the impact of a prize that used to send a very clear signal.
It’s also possible TIFF introduced the International PCA as a strategic move to shift attention back toward its own premieres. In recent years, some of the buzziest winners have arrived at TIFF already hot from Venice, Telluride, or Cannes. By splitting the award into two categories, TIFF may be trying to give its in-house discoveries a better shot at standing out, while still nodding to international films. If that’s the case, it feels less like an audience-driven prize and more like a programming tactic—one that could end up weakening the award’s credibility with pundits and the industry alike.
All of that said, Joseph and I agree: if this year had played out like any other TIFF year, we’d predict the winners and placers would have been—
- Hamnet
- Wake Up Dead Man
- The Voice of Hind Rajab
In fourth place—just shy of cracking the final three—would have been Rental Family. But with the new International People’s Choice Award in play, we’ll now be predicting which films land on each list separately, without doubling up. Our assumption is that TIFF won’t allow the same film to place in both categories; otherwise, what’s the point of creating a new award in the first place?
Joseph’s Predictions:
People’s Choice Award
- Hamnet
- Blue Heron
- Wake Up Dead Man
International People’s Choice Award
- The Voice of Hind Rajab
- Sentimental Value
- It Was Just an Accident
My Predictions:
People’s Choice Award
- Hamnet
- Wake Up Dead Man
- Rental Family
International People’s Choice Award
- The Voice of Hind Rajab
- No Other Choice
- The Secret Agent
One last note: there have been rumors—originating, I think, with Gregory Ellwood at The Playlist—that Baz Luhrmann’s new documentary EPiC: Elvis Presley in Concert could be a real spoiler for the PCA. We know it played well with TIFF audiences, and the festival even added extra screenings (usually a sign that a film is gaining serious momentum). Could this actually be the surprise twist of the year? If so, get ready for the ultimate curveball.